The new Slovak government has surpassed its first 100 days in office. The program statement and legislative plans offer us insights into the administration’s key priorities in the near and far future. Will the upcoming presidential elections affect them? What scenarios lie ahead and what does the public have to say about the government’s first steps?

The public trust in institutions went up after the elections

The period following the elections saw a modest improvement in public sentiment, with a noticeable increase in public trust towards institutions. This is evident from the rise in trust levels for the government, the National Council, as well as the President. By December 2023, 31% of respondents in the ongoing survey “Ako sa máte, Slovensko?” (How are you, Slovakia?) expressed satisfaction with the country’s direction, a significant improvement from just 20% in September. As expected, the satisfaction levels among coalition voters increased, whereas those of opposition voters declined.

The civil protests led by the opposition in response to the government’s comprehensive reform to the Criminal Code have not significantly impacted the popularity of the coalition parties. According to the survey carried out by FOCUS for Markíza’s political TV show “Na telo”,  Smer only dropped from 22.9% to 21.6%, while Hlas experienced a gain of over 3 percentage points, rising from 14.7% at the time of the elections to 17.9% by January. But the strongest opposition party, PS, also managed to gain preferences, rising from 18% to 19.4%. 

What lies ahead for the new government?

The most discussed and arguably the most serious measure brought by the new government so far is the reform of the Criminal Code, which sparked widespread criticism from numerous legal experts, as well as from the European Commission, and prompted the Slovak public to voice their dissent through protests, with tens of thousands participating all over the country. But what other priorities are on the  government’s agenda? 

Consolidation measures

The government faces the challenge of deteriorating state of public finances. In 2024, the public finance deficit is expected to be 5.97% of gross domestic product, or 7.84 billion €. The deficit is projected to be at 7.62 billion €, with government revenues of 22.70 billion € and expenditures of 30.32 billion €. 

In order to improve the state of public finances, the government prepared a consolidation package aiming to contribute approximately 2 billion € to the state budget. The package includes:

• reduction of contributions to the second pension pillar
• raising the health insurance rates to 11% for employers and to 15% for the self-employed
• raising the dividend tax to 10%
• reintroducing minimum corporate tax
• taxing multinational business groups and large domestic groups (equalization tax)
• introducing a bank tax
• increasing taxes on investment, alcohol, and tobacco
• discontinuation of aid with electricity prices for companies

Additionally, the government announced plans to introduce specific financial instruments reflecting the extraordinary profits and super-profits of corporations.  

Key legislative tasks for 2024-2026

Important government’s legislative tasks for 2024 include an amendment of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Act, a proposal to tax sweetened non-alcoholic beverages, and amendment of the Waste Act setting up the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) system for textile products.

In 2025, the government plans to amend the act on the promotion of renewable energy sources and introduce changes to the Civil Procedure Code which will bring measures to limit delays in proceedings.

As for 2026, we can expect an amendment to the Labour Code, as well as the new draft of the Civil Code. 

Slovakia will face two important elections in 2024

Two key political milestones in 2024 will influence the political development of the country and the positions of key stakeholders. Presidential elections will take place on March 23 (first round) and April 6 (second round), while the elections for the European Parliament are scheduled for June 8.

The duel between Pellegrini and Korčok is imminent

The presidential elections will feature 10 candidates in total: Peter Pellegrini (Hlas-SD), Ivan Korčok (independent), Štefan Harabin (independent), Ján Kubiš (independent), Igor Matovič (Slovensko), Andrej Danko (SNS), Krisztián Forró (Aliancia – Szövetség), Patrik Dubovský (Za ľudí, Kresťanská únia), Marian Kotleba (ĽSNS), Milan Náhlik (independent).

According to the latest  polls from January, Peter Pellegrini (Hlas-SD)  would gain 38,1% and Ivan Korčok  (independent) 35,6% in the first round. The second round would see the win of Pellegrini with 54,2% vs. Korčok’s 45,8%. No matter who wins the elections though, key positions in the Government and in the Parliament will almost certainly undergo changes.

Peter Pellegrini

Peter Pellegrini began his political journey with Smer in 2006. He rose to become Deputy Prime Minister for Investments and Informatization in 2016. Pellegrini assumed office in March 2018, succeeding Prime Minister Robert Fico, who resigned following the journalist Kuciak’s murder. Since then, he has been at the forefront of Slovak politics. During his time as Prime Minister, he faced challenges related to corruption and political stability. In the 2020 elections, Pellegrini led the Smer campaign and garnered the highest number of preferential votes, making him the second-highest vote recipient in the National Council. In June 2020, he announced his resignation as vice-chairman of the SMER-SD party and revealed plans to create a new social democratic party called Hlas – Sociálna demokracia. In the early parliamentary elections in September 2023, his party gained 14,7% votes (third highest after Smer and PS) and after the formation of the new government, Pellegrini assumed the post of the Speaker of the Parliament. 

Ivan Korčok

Ivan Korčok has dedicated his professional life to diplomacy. He joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1993 and since then served in many diplomatic posts at home and abroad, such as the Slovak Ambassador to the United States of America, Ambassador to Germany, and Permanent Representative of the Slovak Republic to the European Union. As a diplomat, he worked at the Slovak embassies in Bonn, Bern, and Brussels, and was also the head of the Slovak delegation for the NATO accession negotiations, a member of the Convention on the Future of the EU, the Government Plenipotentiary for the Slovak Presidency of the Council of the EU, and the Minister Delegate to the European Parliament. Over the years, he held various positions at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including the post of the State Secretary in 2002-2005 and in 2015-2018. After the parliamentary elections in February 2020, he was nominated by the SaS party for the post of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and held this position until submitting his resignation during the coalition crisis in September 2022. He is entering the presidential race as an independent candidate. 

Possible post-election scenarios

Scenario 1: Pellegrini wins 

Should Hlas’s chairman become President, the party and Parliament are poised for new leadership. Potential successors for Hlas’s helm include Pellegrini’s close associates: Denisa Saková (current Minister of Economy), Matúš Šutaj Eštok (current Minister of Interior), or Richard Raši (current Minister of Investments), with MP Peter Žiga in the running for Parliament’s Speaker.

Pellegrini’s victory could pose a challenge to his party’s autonomy, with speculations of a merger with Smer not being off the table—despite Pellegrini’s dismissal of such a scenario, Smer’s leader Fico has hinted at the possibility.

The coalition’s future also hangs in the balance. Andrej Danko, SNS’s leader and also a presidential candidate, may seek a reshuffle of ministries or the Speaker’s position, currently held by Pellegrini, for SNS or SMER. However, Danko’s leverage for such demands is questionable.

A reshuffling of ministry leadership, particularly at the Ministries of Environment, Economy, and Interior, is highly likely, with other ministries also potentially affected. This will extend to changes in several parliamentary committee chairs.

The possibility of early parliamentary elections by the end of this year or early next year looms if coalition leaders fail to reconcile.

Scenario 2: Korčok wins 

In this scenario, the personnel changes in the Government and in the Parliament are to be expected after the elections for the European Parliament come to pass.  

Key politicians will depart for the European Parliament

In the elections to the European Parliament (EP), Slovakia will elect 15 representatives. Some of the parties currently in the EP (PS-SPOLU, Smer-SD, ĽSNS, KDH, SaS, SLOVAKIA) have already announced their repeated candidacy (namely PS, Smer-SD, KDH, and SaS), the rest will most likely do so, as well. Hlas-SD, SNS, as well as non-parliamentary parties Aliancia, Republika, and Demokrati will also join the run. 

The current Slovak MEPs repeating their candidacy will be joined by a few current coalition and opposition MPs, thus leaving for the EU parliament if elected. In that case, substitute MPs will take their place in the Slovak parliament. For instance, it can be expected that Richard Sulík (leader of SaS), Ľuboš Blaha (Smer-SD, Deputy Speaker of the Parliament), Andrej Danko (leader of SNS and Deputy Speaker of the Parliament) will leave for Brussels.

How to prepare for the upcoming months

The upcoming months will again bring a reshuffling of key players in the government, at the ministries, and in the parliament.  

At Seesame, we will be happy to help you navigate the post-election situation thanks to:

• Detailed sectoral impact analysis that looks at the results of the elections through the lens of your business priorities and identifies the implications for business, including potential risks and opportunities.
• Stakeholder mapping to help you navigate the complex political environment and identify whom to engage
• Public Affairs strategy to guide your priorities and activities after the election
• Stakeholder outreach and engagement to communicate your priorities to the new government and advocate towards the new government’s manifesto

Ako sa máte, Slovensko?

is a continuous survey that has been monitoring the attitudes of people in Slovakia on important societal issues since 2020. It is a joint project of the research company MNFORCE, communication agency Seesame, Institute of Sociology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Social Communication Research of the Slovak Academy of Sciences.

This Public Affairs Update was prepared by our Senior Public Affairs Team

• Anna Michalková, Head of Public Affairs & Partner
• Alexandra Katkinová, Senior Manager
• Robert Antl, Senior Research Specialist
• Karolína Šramová, Account Manager

Contact: pa@seesame.com